Populations of seasonal influenza virus experience strong annual bottlenecks that pose a considerable extinction risk. It has been suggested that an influenza source population located in tropical Southeast or East Asia seeds annual temperate epidemics. Here we investigate the seasonal dynamics and migration patterns of influenza A H3N2 virus by analysis of virus samples obtained from 2003 to 2006 from Australia, Europe, Japan, New York, New Zealand, Southeast Asia, and newly sequenced viruses from Hong Kong. In contrast to annual temperate epidemics, relatively low levels of relative genetic diversity and no seasonal fluctuations characterized virus populations in tropical Southeast Asia and Hong Kong. Bayesian phylogeographic analysis using discrete temporal and spatial characters reveal high rates of viral migration between urban centers tested. Although the virus population that migrated between Southeast Asia and Hong Kong persisted through time, this was dependent on virus input from temperate regions and these tropical regions did not maintain a source for annual H3N2 influenza epidemics. We further show that multiple lineages may seed annual influenza epidemics, and that each region may function as a potential source population. We therefore propose that the global persistence of H3N2 influenza A virus is the result of a migrating metapopulation in which multiple different localities may seed seasonal epidemics in temperate regions in a given year. Such complex global migration dynamics may confound control efforts and contribute to the emergence and spread of antigenic variants and drug-resistant viruses.
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Temporally structured metapopulation dynamics and persistence of influenza A H3N2 virus in humans
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The origin and global emergence of adamantane resistant A/H3N2 influenza viruses
Resistance to the adamantane class of antiviral drugs by human A/H3N2 influenza viruses currently exceeds 90% in the United States and multiple Asian countries. Adamantane resistance is associated with a single amino acid change (S31N) in the M2 protein, which was shown to rapidly disseminate globally in 2005 in association with a genome reassortment event. However, the exact origin of influenza A/H3N2 viruses carrying the S31N mutation has not been characterized, particularly in South-East Asia. We therefore conducted a phylogenetic analysis of the HA, NA, and M1/2 segments of viral isolates collected between 1997 and 2007 from temperate localities in the Northern hemisphere (New York State, United States, 492 isolates) and Southern hemisphere (New Zealand and Australia, 629 isolates) and a subtropical locality in South-East Asia (Hong Kong, 281 isolates). We find that although the S31N mutation was independently introduced at least 11 times, the vast majority of resistant viruses now circulating globally descend from a single introduction that was first detected in the summer of 2003 in Hong Kong. These resistant viruses were continually detected in Hong Kong throughout 2003-2005, acquired a novel HA through reassortment during the first part of 2005, and thereafter spread globally. The emergence and persistence of adamantane resistant viruses in Hong Kong further supports a source-sink model of global influenza virus ecology, in which South-East Asia experiences continuous viral activity and repeatedly seeds epidemics in temperate areas.
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The genomic and epidemiological dynamics of human influenza A virus
The evolutionary interaction between influenza A virus and the human immune system, manifest as ‘antigenic drift’ of the viral haemagglutinin, is one of the best described patterns in molecular evolution. However, little is known about the genome-scale evolutionary dynamics of this pathogen. Similarly, how genomic processes relate to global influenza epidemiology, in which the A/H3N2 and A/H1N1 subtypes co-circulate, is poorly understood. Here through an analysis of 1,302 complete viral genomes sampled from temperate populations in both hemispheres, we show that the genomic evolution of influenza A virus is characterized by a complex interplay between frequent reassortment and periodic selective sweeps. The A/H3N2 and A/H1N1 subtypes exhibit different evolutionary dynamics, with diverse lineages circulating in A/H1N1, indicative of weaker antigenic drift. These results suggest a sink-source model of viral ecology in which new lineages are seeded from a persistent influenza reservoir, which we hypothesize to be located in the tropics, to sink populations in temperate regions.
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Phylogenetic analysis reveals the global migration of seasonal influenza A viruses
The winter seasonality of influenza A virus in temperate climates is one of the most widely recognized, yet least understood, epidemiological patterns in infectious disease. Central to understanding what drives the seasonal emergence of this important human pathogen is determining what becomes of the virus during the non-epidemic summer months. Herein, we take a step towards elucidating the seasonal emergence of influenza virus by determining the evolutionary relationship between populations of influenza A virus sampled from opposite hemispheres. We conducted a phylogenetic analysis of 487 complete genomes of human influenza A/H3N2 viruses collected between 1999 and 2005 from Australia and New Zealand in the southern hemisphere, and a representative sub-sample of viral genome sequences from 413 isolates collected in New York state, United States, representing the northern hemisphere. We show that even in areas as relatively geographically isolated as New Zealand’s South Island and Western Australia, global viral migration contributes significantly to the seasonal emergence of influenza A epidemics, and that this migration has no clear directional pattern. These observations run counter to suggestions that local epidemics are triggered by the climate-driven reactivation of influenza viruses that remain latent within hosts between seasons or transmit at low efficiency between seasons. However, a complete understanding of the seasonal movements of influenza A virus will require greatly expanded global surveillance, particularly of tropical regions where the virus circulates year-round, and during non-epidemic periods in temperate climate areas.