Accurate understanding of the global spread of emerging viruses is critical for public health responses and for anticipating and preventing future outbreaks. Here we elucidate when, where, and how the earliest sustained severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) transmission networks became established in Europe and North America. Our results suggest that rapid early interventions successfully prevented early introductions of the virus from taking hold in Germany and the United States. Other, later introductions of the virus from China to both Italy and Washington state, United States, founded the earliest sustained European and North America transmission networks. Our analyses demonstrate the effectiveness of public health measures in preventing onward transmission and show that intensive testing and contact tracing could have prevented SARS-CoV-2 outbreaks from becoming established in these regions.
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The emergence of SARS-CoV-2 in Europe and North America
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Characterization of swine-origin H1N1 canine influenza viruses
Host switch events of influenza A viruses (IAVs) continuously pose a zoonotic threat to humans. In 2013, swine-origin H1N1 IAVs emerged in dogs soon after they were detected in swine in the Guangxi province of China. This host switch was followed by multiple reassortment events between these H1N1 and previously circulating H3N2 canine IAVs (IAVs-C) in dogs. To evaluate the phenotype of these newly identified viruses, we characterized three swine-origin H1N1 IAVs-C and one reassortant H1N1 IAV-C. We found that H1N1 IAVs-C predominantly bound to human-type receptors, efficiently transmitted via direct contact in guinea pigs and replicated in human lung cells. Moreover, the swine-origin H1N1 IAVs-C were lethal in mice and were transmissible by respiratory droplets in guinea pigs. Importantly, sporadic human infections with these viruses have been detected, and preexisting immunity in humans might not be sufficient to prevent infections with these new viruses. Our results show the potential of H1N1 IAVs-C to infect and transmit in humans, suggesting that these viruses should be closely monitored in the future.
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Emergence and Evolution of Novel Reassortant Influenza A Viruses in Canines in Southern China
The capacity of influenza A viruses (IAVs) to host jump from animal reservoir species to humans presents an ongoing pandemic threat. Birds and swine are considered major reservoirs of viral genetic diversity, whereas equines and canines have historically been restricted to one or two stable IAV lineages with no transmission to humans. Here, by sequencing the complete genomes of 16 IAVs obtained from canines in southern China (Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region [Guangxi]) in 2013 to 2015, we demonstrate that the evolution of canine influenza viruses (CIVs) in Asian dogs is increasingly complex, presenting a potential threat to humans. First, two reassortant H1N1 virus genotypes were introduced independently from swine into canines in Guangxi, including one genotype associated with a zoonotic infection. The genomes contain segments from three lineages that circulate in swine in China: North American triple reassortant H3N2, Eurasian avian-like H1N1, and pandemic H1N1. Furthermore, the swine-origin H1N1 viruses have transmitted onward in canines and reassorted with the CIV-H3N2 viruses that circulate endemically in Asian dogs, producing three novel reassortant CIV genotypes (H1N1r, H1N2r, and H3N2r [r stands for reassortant]). CIVs from this study were collected primarily from pet dogs presenting with respiratory symptoms at veterinary clinics, but dogs in Guangxi are also raised for meat, and street dogs roam freely, creating a more complex ecosystem for CIV transmission. Further surveillance is greatly needed to understand the full genetic diversity of CIV in southern China, the nature of viral emergence and persistence in the region’s diverse canine populations, and the zoonotic risk as the viruses continue to evolve.IMPORTANCE Mammals have emerged as critically underrecognized sources of influenza virus diversity, including pigs that were the source of the 2009 pandemic and bats and bovines that harbor highly divergent viral lineages. Here, we identify two reassortant IAVs that recently host switched from swine to canines in southern China, including one virus with known zoonotic potential. Three additional genotypes were generated via reassortment events in canine hosts, demonstrating the capacity of dogs to serve as “mixing vessels.” The continued expansion of IAV diversity in canines with high human contact rates requires enhanced surveillance and ongoing evaluation of emerging pandemic threats.
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Global migration of influenza A viruses in swine
The complex and unresolved evolutionary origins of the 2009 H1N1 influenza pandemic exposed major gaps in our knowledge of the global spatial ecology and evolution of influenza A viruses in swine (swIAVs). Here we undertake an expansive phylogenetic analysis of swIAV sequence data and demonstrate that the global live swine trade strongly predicts the spatial dissemination of swIAVs, with Europe and North America acting as sources of viruses in Asian countries. In contrast, China has the world’s largest swine population but is not a major exporter of live swine, and is not an important source of swIAVs in neighbouring Asian countries or globally. A meta-population simulation model incorporating trade data predicts that the global ecology of swIAVs is more complex than previously thought, and the United States and China’s large swine populations are unlikely to be representative of swIAV diversity in their respective geographic regions, requiring independent surveillance efforts throughout Latin America and Asia.
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Risks of avian influenza transmission in areas of intensive free-ranging duck production with wild waterfowl
For decades, southern China has been considered to be an important source for emerging influenza viruses since key hosts live together in high densities in areas with intensive agriculture. However, the underlying conditions of emergence and spread of avian influenza viruses (AIV) have not been studied in detail, particularly the complex spatiotemporal interplay of viral transmission between wild and domestic ducks, two major actors of AIV epidemiology. In this synthesis, we examine the risks of avian influenza spread in Poyang Lake, an area of intensive free-ranging duck production and large numbers of wild waterfowl. Our synthesis shows that farming of free-grazing domestic ducks is intensive in this area and synchronized with wild duck migration. The presence of juvenile domestic ducks in harvested paddy fields prior to the arrival and departure of migrant ducks in the same fields may amplify the risk of AIV circulation and facilitate the transmission between wild and domestic populations. We provide evidence associating wild ducks migration with the spread of H5N1 in the spring of 2008 from southern China to South Korea, Russia, and Japan, supported by documented wild duck movements and phylogenetic analyses of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 sequences. We suggest that prevention measures based on a modification of agricultural practices may be implemented in these areas to reduce the intensity of AIV transmission between wild and domestic ducks. This would require involving all local stakeholders to discuss feasible and acceptable solutions.
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Epidemiological dynamics and phylogeography of influenza virus in southern China
BACKGROUND: Understanding the epidemiological dynamics of influenza virus is central to surveillance and vaccine strain selection. It has been suggested that tropical and subtropical regions represent the global source of influenza epidemics. However, our understanding of the epidemiological dynamics of influenza virus in these regions is limited by a relative lack of long-term data.
METHODS: We analyzed epidemiological and virological data on influenza recorded over a period of 15 years from the metropolitan city of Shenzhen in subtropical southern China. We used wavelet analysis to determine the periodicity of influenza epidemics and molecular phylogeographic analysis to investigate the role of Shenzhen and southern China in the global evolution of influenza virus.
RESULTS: We show that southern China is unlikely to represent an epicenter of global influenza activity, because activity in Shenzhen is characterized by significant annual cycles, multiple viral introductions every year, limited persistence across epidemic seasons, and viruses that generally are not positioned on the trunk of the global influenza virus phylogeny.
CONCLUSIONS: We propose that novel influenza viruses emerge and evolve in multiple geographic localities and that the global evolution of influenza virus is complex and does not simply originate from a southern Chinese epicenter.